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Is the Boom Over for Indian Student Visas? What Every University Needs to Know.

Let me guess. Your boss is on the phone after hearing Indian student visas in the US dropped by a third and needs you to explain what happened. You’re probably caught off guard and not quite sure what you’re going to say.

Let’s fix that.

India’s a big deal. We get that. Especially with China kind of being on the lam since COVID and failing to recover like many other nationalities. Someday, we’ll focus on the China narrative.

But, Today. We’re all about India. So, let’s get to it.

Here at Enrollment Charts, Data is King.

No gut feelings. No relying on what we overheard at a conference or over drinks with a successful counterpart. We want to know this quantifiably and preferably with charts.

So, what do we see when we zoom out and look at Indian F-1 Visa Issuance from as far back as the US State Department has shared that info? We see a monster thrust in Indian student visa issuance immediately following COVID.


The Rubber Band Theory

Let’s step back and put things into perspective.

Imagine you’re holding a rubber band, and you decide to stretch it out as far as you can. You’re really going for it. You notice that the harder you push the rubber band beyond its normal state, the more the resistance increases. You know this is going to snap back and probably snap back hard.

See, things prefer their normal, balanced state. Humans included.

I mention humans because humans are the most irrational creatures we know, and irrational behavior if left to its own devices can very quickly take things to their limit until things need to snap back.

Let’s not forget visa issuance is all about humans, and visa issuance is a topic occasionally swimming in irrational behavior. Therefore, it tends to move to extremes and then snap back towards a balanced, natural stat

With data we call this return to the natural, balanced state, mean reversion.

Mean reversion is simply when data gets too far away from its average or mean (if you recall high school statistics) and returns toward it, as it seeks its more balanced and natural state.

Remember that thing we learned in school called the Bell Curve. It’s how data tends to accumulate near the middle or the mean. Yet, we also studied standard deviations. Standard deviations mark those points in which the rubber band has been stretched in one way or another. It’s no longer behaving like it normally should.

COVID forced Indian visas to move further and further away from it’s normal state. Let’s call that natural state for Indian visa issuance, Pre-COVID. First, COVID forced visa issuance to be pulled in the negative directive all the way down to miniscule values. Visa Issuance then over-compensated in the opposite direction until issuance became so stretched it was screaming to snap back into a normal, balanced state. To mean revert.

So, just for giggles - how far away from the mean did Indian Visas in 2022/23 actually get from Pre-COVID?

276 standard deviations! Can you feel the strain?

So, You Want Me to Tell My Boss About Rubber Bands???

No. Well. Not exactly.

The rubber band theory is helpful. Very helpful in getting the discussion started. We essentially just introduced the topic of volatility & in case, it’s not clear, the more the rubber band stretches from the mean, the higher the volatility

But, now we need to introduce Trend Analysis or that data tends to move in one of three directions if the data is correlated. Up, Down or Sideways.

See, the Indian Visa Issuance trend was definitely in an uptrend. The shocker perhaps is that it still is. Let me explain.

Every uptrend has two specific qualities: A series of higher highs and higher lows.


As long as the drawdown, or temporary dip, on Indian Visa Issuance stays above a certain level - we are within an uptrend. So, you might be asking yourself, “what is that critical level we need to stay above?”

Great question!

A healthy uptrend would have Indian Visa Issuance numbers staying above the Pre-COVID high of 2018/19. Now, it doesn’t have to do this. It can get messy and dip below those highs and then ratchet higher. Or it could do what none of us want and prove to be a downtrend. But, right now - we don’t fully know. But the odds are in favor of a higher low.

Why do I seem so confident we are in an uptrend? Because we’re exactly 100% above our Pre-COVID highs for Indian student visa issuance.

Wait! Did you read that correctly? Yes. Yes, you did. In 2018/19, 43,000 visas were issued. In 2023/24, 86,000 visas were issued.

See that’s the issue with relying on our memory. Memories change. The more recent memories of massive visa issuance for Indian students so overshadow the memory of Pre-COVID visa issuance numbers that we fall victim to recency bias.

At Enrollment Charts we rely on data so we don’t fall to bias and irrational behavior. The good news is that everyone not subscribing to Enrollment Charts is likely feeling a sense of doom and gloom about Indian visas. Hopefully, readers of this blog are finding a warm sense of opportunity swelling within themselves.

So, what do we do here? What’s the action plan?

Well, in financial market nomenclature - this is where you’d likely commit to “buying the dip.” Market participants see a drawdown within an uptrend as an opportunity. That’s how I’m seeing this, as well.

In fact, in an interview yesterday with Karin Fischer of Chronicle of Higher Education, I told her simply, “I hope all of my counterparts misread this drop in enrollments. I hope they decide to transition resources into other markets. Why? Because, I’ll be going big in India, ideally with a little less competition joining me.”

I hope this inaugural blog post of Enrollment Charts has been insightful. And maybe those of you who read - will also be big in India with me next year with a little less competition present.

Data is king.

-Jay Ligon

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